Trump's Capture of Maduro: Turning a Global Superpower into a Lawless Actor

Amid the immense confusion regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a truly chilling precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and capture its head of state – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.