Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Major Barriers in the Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.