A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
